Notes: Important errors, adjusted for clustering by the condition away from delivery, are shown into the parentheses

Every regressions are dummy details getting census year, race, decades, state away from beginning, and you will cohort out of birth, and you may region of delivery trend. Research was aggregated to say off beginning ? year out-of delivery ? census seasons cell function in the first column, however, from the individual level on the IV regressions. See the notes to help you Desk 1 .

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Brand new IV quotes indicate that the latest causal ramifications of very early teenager marriage and you will dropout updates on the upcoming poverty is nice. Brand www.datingmentor.org/cs/seznamka-na-strednim-vychode/ new standard quotes mean that marrying younger boosts the chances a beneficial younger bride to be will end up inside poverty afterwards in life by the around 31 commission situations. Dropping away from twelfth grade provides a relatively shorter, but still reasonable, eleven payment area effect on coming impoverishment. These types of answers are strong to the stage regarding aggregation, LIML quote, changes to have migration, and you may a control mode method. The individual-peak OLS estimates having very early teen marriage try small, when you find yourself aggregated OLS rates produce a price that’s of your exact same magnitude since IV quotes.

To raised understand this this new IV and you will aggregated OLS prices differ plenty on the personal-peak OLS rates, I today explore the new part of measurement mistake. In census investigation, years initially matrimony is calculated about stated go out off earliest matrimony and you may go out off delivery (day and you can 12 months). Constantly singular individual fulfills on census means into the entire house. This will be attending worsen aspect error once the people finishing brand new census may not have specific facts about almost every other family members’ times of beginning and you can basic marriage. Within the 1970 and you can 1980, brand new census function instructs people to “provide the best guess” whenever both ones dates is “unidentified.” 19

While the fraction of early adolescent marriages is so small, any mismeasurement regarding go out out of beginning or go out out of relationship-both details familiar with create many years at first relationship-tends to cause a very higher down bias from inside the new OLS estimate of your own early adolescent ount from measurement error, the latest incorrectly classified adolescent brides can be outnumber the true teen brides, leading to large attenuation bias.

To higher comprehend the incidence away from dimensions error from inside the reported schedules, consider the 1975 Federal Fertility Survey (NFS). It was the fresh new fifth in some surveys presented all the 5 years to look at ily considered. The newest interesting element of survey into the 1975 is that the scientists made a decision to reinterview a selected take to of women about 1970 questionnaire. The reinterview sample has dos,355 light feamales in the very first marriage ceremonies who have been constantly partnered, whose decades on relationship are less than twenty five years, and you will whose husbands had also been partnered only when. The 1975 and you can 1970 surveys inquire day off birth and date off very first matrimony, with one another categories of solutions are filed about 1975 decide to try. Thus for it subset of females, I will calculate a lowered bound on the misreports from the evaluating this new same female’s answers more than an effective four-season date opinions.

Misreporting generally declines while the an effective female’s stated ount from error within the these types of most other groups try smaller in comparison

Desk 8 tabulates how frequently brand new responses regarding the 1975 questionnaire do not fulfill the solutions about 1970 questionnaire. For your test, schedules out of birth don’t concur cuatro% of the time, and you can dates regarding relationship don’t consent a dozen% of time. As a result, you to definitely good female’s many years on relationships measured in years will not fall into line getting eleven% of one’s findings in the take to. Mismatch pricing are also claimed for the Dining table 8 to have groupings established on the a good female’s advertised matrimony years about 1970 questionnaire. For those marrying at otherwise beneath the ages of 15 inside brand new 1970 survey, 8% of birth dates and you may thirty-five% out-of relationship schedules do not fall into line across survey years. For it class, 39% of the implied marriage age disagree along side surveys. The level of measurement error in the census is likely to getting actually large since 1975 NFS tested simply ladies who had never ever separated along with females answer questions on by themselves.